A passion for public health and economics
Subhash’s journey into public health economics was driven by a desire to make a tangible difference in people’s lives. He evaluates public health interventions to work out their health and economic benefits, aiming to provide decision-makers with the best strategies for utilising scarce resources. This passion is fuelled by the potential to influence decisions that can lead to significant health gains and economic returns.
One of the most significant challenges in Subhash’s recent research study is the deep cultural roots of smokeless tobacco use in South Asia.
Subhash
Subhash Pokhrel
It’s not just a habit; it’s a cultural staple, celebrated at family gatherings and social events. This cultural acceptance makes it difficult for current users to quit, or for those who have, to not start again, as well as for non-users to resist starting altogether. “Our research needed to capture this challenging scenario so we could model the entire lifetime trajectory of this habit,” explains Subhash.
The economic costs associated with smokeless tobacco are staggering. In India alone, the habit costs an estimated 19 billion US dollars annually. To communicate this effectively to policymakers, Subhash translated the figures into relatable terms, emphasising the cost burden on young adolescents to drive home the urgency of policy action.
“We said, if India did not do anything further, each 15-year-old male adolescent would have to contribute INR 1,500 to its national treatment pot to treat diseases caused by smokeless tobacco,” he elaborates.
The study, funded by the UK's and published in the journal , predicted the lifetime costs of treating four common diseases among smokeless tobacco users: oral, pharyngeal, and oesophageal cancers, and stroke. The researchers developed a Markov-based state-transition model (later named as ASTRAMOD) to estimate these costs and the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to current and future smokeless tobacco use in India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan.
The findings revealed that if current policies and their implementation levels stay as they are, the lifetime healthcare costs attributable to smokeless tobacco use would exceed $19 billion in India, $1.5 billion in Bangladesh, and $3 billion in Pakistan. The study highlighted that the greatest health impacts fall on young people who have not yet taken up the habit, emphasising the urgent need for policy changes.